What's in Election Endorsements? Do they really result in votes?

Introduction

Zambians will be going to the polls to elect a new Republican President on 20th January 2015. There are 11 presidential candidates. Only one is female, Edith Nawakwi of the Forum for Democratic Process (FDD).

Edith Nawakwi, FDD President
 Photo: Courtesy of  

 https://www.facebook.com/edithz.nawakwi/photos/

The election has been necessitated by the death of the incumbent Republican President Michael Chilufya Sata who died on 28th October, 2014. He became Zambia's fifth President in 2011. According to the Zambian Constitution an election should be held three months after the death of a sitting President. The Republican Vice President, Guy Scott has been acting as President since the demise of President Sata.

This upcoming election has exposed the weaknesses in intra-party governance structures manifesting in party succession wrangles. It has also exposed weaknesses in the Zambian Constitution regarding the vacancy in the office of the President. The most intense of wrangles were in the ruling PF. There were two schools of thought on how a replacement should be found for the deceased party president. Before leaving for his trip to London, United Kingdom to seek medical attention the Republican President Michael Sata appointed Edgar Lungu as acting President. Mr Lungu was also the serving Minister of Defense and Minister of Justice. Following the untimely death of the incumbent President he handed over the instrument of power to the Republican Vice President Dr Guy Scott as provided for in the Zambian Constitution. This raised some dust among some PF supporters and some members of the general public who believed that Edgar Lungu should have continued to act until a substantive office holder was elected. A court injunction lodged by Newton Nguni followed to resolve the issue. 

Late Zambian Republican Michael Chilufya Sata,
  Photo:
Courtsey of /www.facebook.com/pages/Michael-Chilufya-Sata

Acting Republican President Dr Guy Scott
 Photo: courtsey of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guy_Scott

Edgar Chagwa Lungu, PF Party President,
 Photo: https://www.facebook.com/search/more/?q=Edgar+Lungu&init=public

Main Contenders

Rupiah Banda, Zambia's fourth Republican President
Photo: courtesy of  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupiah_Banda#mediaviewer 

The main contenders for the upcoming election are the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) President Edgar C Lungu and opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) President Hakainde Hichilema commonly known as HH. This will be the first time for Edgar Lungu to stand and the third for HH. HH has come out 3rd in all his previous attempts losing to Levy Mwanawasa in 2006, to Rupiah Banda 2008 in and Michael Chilufya Sata in 2011. Another strong contender was Rupiah Banda. He had to withdraw from the race following a court order. Rupiah has been in retirement since losing the Presidential election of 2011. However, shortly after the date for the forth coming presidential election was announced he decided to come back as the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) with support of some of the big wigs in MMD. MMD was the ruling party before losing power to the PF in 2011. The party has been weakened by succession wrangles. Rupiah was replaced by Pastor Nevers Mumba in a convention held after Rupiah's decision to retire from active politics. Nevers Mumba has not been accepted as party president by some of the members of the party resulting in some of them supporting Rupiah's candidature before the court ruling.

Party succession wrangles

At PF party level there were also some different schools of thought on how to find a leader to contest the election. One school of thought was that a party convention be held while another was that the PF Central Committee elects a Party President. After protracted discussions and fall-outs the two schools of thoughts finally settled for a convention. Accreditation for the convention which was planned for the Mulungushi University in Kabwe was marred in irregularities with accusations from the two main differing schools of though. There were more than 5 candidates for the PF presidency. This included Edgar Lungu, Miles Sampa, Chishimba Kabwili, the former First Lady Dr. Christine Kaseba Sata, Musa Mwenya ,Robert Sichinga and Given Lubinda. The late President's son Mulenga Sata withdrew from the race shortly before the convention in Kabwe. The process of selecting the successor was affected by conflict and in the end there were 2 election processes. The first had Edgar Lungu unopposed and declared winner while the second elected Miles Sampa. Following protracted legal battles the second election was declared null and void and in the end Edgar Lungu successfully filed in the nomination as PF candidate.

The MMD also sought legal intervention to resolve the issue of who should stand on the party ticket. Dr Nevers Mumba and Rupiah Banda were locked in a legal battle with both claiming to be the MMD candidate. Some of the party official supported Rupiah's candidature arguing that he was a much stronger contender compared to Dr Mumba. Meanwhile Dr. Mumba sought legal interpretation of the MMD constitution over the issue and in the end the courts declared him the rightful candidate. Meanwhile the wrangles have continued with some members refusing to back Dr. Mumba in his campaign.

Endorsements

The era of political elections started with the reintroduction of multi-party elections in 1991 in Zambia. However, the issue of endorsements has been taken to a new level in these upcoming elections. Prior to this elections the endorsements were mainly sought from the traditional leaders. This is because these are supposedly in a position to influence the voting patterns of their subjects. There are a number of traditional leaders in Zambia but endorsements are mainly sought from influential Chiefs especially Paramount Chiefs. Presidential candidates have been reported in the media to have been visiting these traditional leaders whenever they have been on a campaign trail in rural areas. The rural vote is highly sought after because previous election outcomes have indicated that the voting patterns in these areas tend to be highly skewed certain favorites depending on the region. Most of the Presidential candidates with financial resources have therefore focused their campaign rallies in these regions.

Hakainde Hichilema, UNDP President. Photo:
 Courtsey of  https://www.facebook.com/hakainde.hichilema/photos

A new phenomenon in these elections is individual endorsements and inter-party endorsements. Some of the 'influential' Zambians including the fourth President Rupiah Banda have openly 'endorsed' certain candidates. We have also seen certain political parties or a groups of people in a particular political party endorsing a given Presidential candidate. HH and Edgar Lungu have received the most of these endorsements. The former first lady Dr Maureen Mwanawasa has endorsed HH and is part of his campaign team. HH has also received endorsements from Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba (GBM), the PF Member of Parliament (MP) for Kasama Constituency, Patrick Mucheleka, an independent MP, Felix Mutati, MMD MP and others. Edgar Lungu has received endorsements from Rupiah Banda and other MMD members including several MPs. He has also been endorsed by Frank Bwalya, President of Alliance for a Better Zambia. The endorsements have received prominent coverage in the  media.

The question is, do they really have any influence in the voting patterns? Recent Presidential elections in 2008 and 2011 have shown that Zambians in urban areas mainly vote based on the popularity of a given candidate and also based on the campaign promises. In 2008, the MMD main campaign message was continuity. Given the good work particularly in the fight against corruption embarked on by the 'New Deal' Government led by Levy Patrick Mwanawasa it was an easy election for the MMD to win. However, regarding the rural vote there were some elements of regional voting with the UPND, MMD and PF who were strong contenders retaining their regional strongholds. The 2011 PF campaign which removed the MMD Government was based on 'more money in your pocket'. The campaign strategy made some significant changes in the voting patterns across various age groups. For the first time most of the youth were interested in voting because the PF message appealed to them. Whilst the 3 main competitors retained their rural regional strongholds there were some significant shifts in the urban vote. The ruling MMD lost its stronghold in Western Province and there was a shift in voting patterns in the urban voting. One can easily argue that the MMD won a sympathetic vote in 2008 while the PF won the 2011 election based on the message. There is very little evidence of the endorsements being a key factor in shifting voting patterns. Previously these endorsements have mainly being by traditional leaders. The rise of individual endorsements may have some significant influence but this remains to be seen.

Other factors likely to influence the outcome

Financial resources will definitely be a key factor in the outcome of the forth coming elections. For the first time we have seen political parties using elaborate media strategies during the campaigns. The main contenders have dedicated websites and are using social media especially facebook to a very wide extent. There are elaborate media advertisements on radio and television and print media. In addition, there are street based campaigns involving dedicated campaign songs sung by popular artists. On the ground campaigns have involved hiring of chartered planes. This also means that the losses will be huge for the losing candidates given the resources that they have employed in these campaigns. 

Conclusion

The forth-coming presidential election on 20th January 2015 will definitely change Zambian's political history given the interesting new phenomenon that has emerged in political campaigning of 'individual' endorsements. These are endorsements that have been made by 'prominent' Zambians and some political parties in support of one presidential candidate or the other. For the first time we have seen members of the same political party support different presidential candidates. The classic example is the MMD where members of the party are either supporting the ruling PF candidate, or the UPND candidate or indeed the MMD candidate. There are also some political parties that have thrown their weight behind other political parties e.g. Frank Bwalya's Alliance for a Better Zambia. This is an interesting area of research. It would be interesting to see whether these endorsements will really have a significant impact on the voting patterns and the final outcome. Another new phenomenon is the use of social media in campaigning. Most of the candidates have dedicated facebook accounts for the campaign. Further, the ability to hire chartered planes and hold campaigns in remote areas is also expected to have a significant effect.