Is the 90 days pause in U.S. foreign aid flows a Project activity killer assumption?

Introduction and background

President Donald Trump was sworn in on 20^th January 2025 as the United States (US)’s 47^th President in Washington D.C. This was the second time he was sworn into this office. He was the 45^th US President. He is a republican. He took over the presidency from the 46^th President, Joe Biden, a democratic.  He signed off several executive orders immediately after he was sworn in. One of the most consequential on the international development sector is the executive order on foreign aid. Given the change of administration most expected changes in domestic and international policies after the inauguration. This has been the tradition for years whenever there is a transition of power from the democrats to republicans and vice versa. The executive order on foreign aid triggered the US Agency for International Development (USAID) “Stop-Work- Order” notice. The notice was issued by the US State Department on Friday 24 January 2025.  Is the pause in funding a project killer assumption? But, who would have known that guessed this would affect come US funded projects and programmes all over the world? I am sure many people and organisations have been taken by surprise.

Killer assumptions

Making assumptions is a key element of project cycle management. Assumptions are made on the external factors likely to affect implementation. This is a crucial aspect of strategic planning. The practice is repeated at key stages once a project has been approved by a funder i.e., during project inception (start-up), implementation, phase-out and completion. Some assumptions are called killer assumptions. These assumptions make implementation of a project activity impossible.

The business proposal development team redesigns the project if they encounter a killer assumption. One of the most common killer assumptions is “no funding”. If this is detected at the design phase the decision is often to discontinue the business proposal. Once the project has been approved by the funder and the agreement/contract signed, the ‘no funding’ killer assumption may still exist but is very highly unlikely to happen, unless there are serious financial compliance issues e.g., fraud by the implementing agency or their sub-awardees.

Stop Work Directive on US Foreign Aid

The “Stop-Work- Order” issued by the US State Department on Friday 24 January 2025 is unprecedented and has rocked the international development community. The order has triggered a 90 days pause in US foreign aid flows. The directive immediately froze US foreign aid worldwide with exemptions on emergency food programmes and military aid to Israel and Egypt.  A subsequent temporary waiver was announced for humanitarian programmes providing life-saving medicine, medical services, food, and shelter and subsistence assistance on Tuesday 28 January 2025. The pause will allow USAID to review and align the US foreign assistance priorities with the new administration’s priorities.

The disruption in funding will affect thousands of humanitarian, development and security programmes funded by the US. The US is the world’s biggest providers of official development aid (ODA). According to Associated Press US provides approximately 40 out of 100 dollars donated in ODA, annually.  Reuters, quoting UN figures, estimates US donations to humanitarian aid at $72 billion dollars, in 2023.

Consequences closer to home: Zambia

No doubt this “Stop-Work-Order” has immediate and long term effects for Zambia. USAID is one of Zambia’s largest sources of ODA, especially in the health sector. The waiver on humanitarian programmes providing life-saving medicine and medical services is a welcome relief. But, the country needs to prepare for the outcome of the 90 day review.

The impact of this order will be greatly felt in the non- Governmental Organisation (NGO) community in Zambia. These include International NGOs, local NGOs and their sub-awardees (most community based organisations). According to the USAID ‘Stop-Work-Order’ affected implementing partners are required to take ‘reasonable steps to minimize the incurrence of costs allocable to the work covered by this notice during the period of work stoppage’. This will allow for payment of salaries and indirect costs for full time employees in certain documented cases. However, downstream project implementers especially community volunteers may not be eligible to get stipends in some cases. This will greatly impact their disposable income. Moreover, suppliers (vendors) and contractors providing services to USAID projects (e.g., conferencing packages) are immediately affected. The domino effect on their turnover is obvious.

Key lessons and considerations

•  Donor fatigue: There is no doubt that nation states are becoming more focused on internal rather than global policy agendas. Not so long ago (post 2020) the United Kingdom (UK) Government withdrew a significant amount of bilateral aid from several middle income countries. This was done as part of phasing out (abolishing) the Department of International Development (DFID). Several DFID funded projects and programmes in Zambia were scaled down or phased out. The Embassy of Denmark (and DANIDA), the Embassy of Norway (and NORAD) and the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands (EKN) phased out of Zambia and out of bilateral assistance to several local NGOs in the period 2006 to 2016.
•  Donor diversification: The impact of the USAID ‘Stop-Work-Order’ is not highly significant for organisations that have a diversified donor portfolio. This stop may even work to their advantage if they are able to adapt and shift the freed staff time to resource mobilisation e.g., monitoring funding opportunities by other donors or drafting concept notes and proposals. This key organisational sustainability process is often neglected when operations are in full swing.
• Financial sustainability: This development is a wake-up call to invest in strengthening financial sustainability e.g., by creating and growing a reserve fund (or buffer funds). Reserve funds come in handy in times like this. USAID has been supporting the decentralisation of operations from international NGOs to local NGOs as part of local capacity strengthening (localisation) in Zambia. Several local NGOs have been awarded Fixed Amount Awards (FAAs) as part of this initiative. FAAs have simplified grant management requirements. Payments are based on achievement of milestones with no need for detailed cost tracking and reporting. This flexibility leads to budgetary savings. These savings could be channelled to the reserve fund (own funds).
•  Corporate Social Responsibility and philanthropy: The private sector, owned by global and local corporates should be lobbied to support projects and programmes that are adversely affected by the USAID “Stop-Work-Order”. It is important for implementing partners and their sub-awardees to persuade the corporates on the added value for them to support these initiatives.  
•  Donor harmonisation, aid effectiveness and sector earmarking: There is need to relook at these aid delivery modalities. Assigning donors to specific sectors, e.g., health, education, social protection, water to the exclusion of other donors increases the risk to aid recipients. Imagine there is a total shift in US aid policy to Zambia after the 90 day review. This will be catastrophic for most of the health programmes that are implemented solely by funds provided by USAID. It is therefore important for the donor community to re-think and adapt the donor harmonisation practices to reduce operational vulnerability to grant recipients.

Conclusion

Killer assumptions are a project designer’s nightmare but there is always a good option. The option is to go back to the drawing board. The ‘no funding’ killer assumption is a project implementer’s worst nightmare especially when there is no strategic risk management plan or an emergence reserve or buffer fund. The Friday 24^th January 2025 US State Department “Stop-Work- Order” Notice will no doubt go down in history as one of the memorable disruptions to US foreign aid assistance, globally. The greatest impact in Zambia, in the short-term, will be on the field operations of USAID single funded projects implemented by NGOs. One of the key lessons for the global donor community is to re-think the sector wide donor alignment. This approach makes implementing partners, especially single donor funded local NGOs, highly vulnerable to funding shocks. On the flip side, this presents an opportunity for philanthropists (foundations and charities) and the corporate sector to step in and rescue the situation.

References

Ellen Knickmeyer, Samya Kulla, Farai Mutsaka, Matthew Lee, “A US Shut down on foreign aid is hitting worldwide. Rubio adds more exemptions.” 29 January 2025. Associated Press: Washington, D.C., https://apnews.com/article/trump-foreign-assistance-freeze-684ff394662986eb38e0c84d3e73350b

Humeyra Pamuk, Maggie Michael, Lena Masri, “Trump administration emo tells USAID to put “America First” in reviewing foreign aid”, 26 January 2025, Reuters: Washington D.C.,  https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-memo-tells-usaid-put-america-first-reviewing-foreign-aid-2025-01-26/

Katherine Gentic, “Costs Incurred under USAID Stop Work Orders”. January 27 2025, LinkedIn  https://www.linkedin.com/posts/katherine-gentic-366b285_usaid-stopworkorders-activity-7290045021037228033-MF5T/

Lowcode, M.,Dissanayake, R., 2024. The rise and fall of the department for international development. Center for global development: Washington D.C., and London

Norah Kalenga Mpundu, Fixed Amounts Award A tool for sustainability”, 28 January 2025. https://www.linkedin.com/search/results/all/?keywords=Fixed%20Amount%20Awards%20Norah%20Mpundu

 

 

 

 

 

Working with External Consultants: The Five Key Success Factors

One of the tasks that I was never academically or professionally trained for, but found myself doing more often than not, in my technical capacity, was managing relationships with external consultants.

As a programme manager, I found that capacity building of colleagues and staff in partner organisations was a key aspect of effective and efficient activity planning and implementation.

As a thematic advisor, my ability to provide training and/or support staff and partners was limited. So, outsourcing services from external consultants was a key element of effective and efficient programme management. Furthermore, some aspects of programme implementation by nature had to be done by external consultants to be valid e.g., external evaluations.

• Orientation

The external nature of the relationship means that there is a certain posture that needs to be taken. It is important to be aware that what maybe obvious to colleagues e.g. routines and procedures for requesting stationery or travel advances, will have to be explained in detail to the external consultant. So, the orientation should not be cosmetic (i.e., done to tick a box) but thorough and tailored to the external consultant’s practical needs.

• Introduction to key staff

This maybe a quick introduction of the external consultant to key relations during their assignment. It is also important to provide information on the communication lines etc. One of the best practices is also share who should be contacted when the relationship manager is not available or on leave. This will ensure that the work flow is not disrupted.

• Logistical support

The external consultant often brings on board some of the required tools for the assignment e.g., their laptop. But the relationship manager should ensure that they make all the relevant arrangements (e.g., transport) and appointments with their stakeholders. This will ensure that the external consultant has access to the relevant human and other resources to carry out their assignment. Sometimes this may include support with getting visas and introductory letters to public officials or booking accommodation.

• Constructive and on-time feedback

Providing timely and thorough feedback on deliverables from the external consultant is very important. This ensures that the quality of the outputs from the consultancy is high. Passive or quick feedback or delayed feedback reduces the quality and timeliness of the outputs.

• Empathy and professionalism

It is also important to be empathetic while remaining professional. To be aggressive and impatient especially when giving guidance can work against a very productive and long-lasting relationship. My experience is that cultivating healthy professional relationships is an investment for the relationship manager and also for their employer. The employer will have a pool of experts that they can work in the short and long term. This will save resources. Open sourcing every time technical expertise is required is costly. A lot of time is used in reviewing and evaluating open sourced bids/tenders.

Acting Republican President Wina Asks House of Chiefs to assist in Curbing Land Grabbing

Acting Republican President, Mrs Inonge Wina, has requested the House of Chiefs, through its Chairperson, Her Royal Highness Senior Chieftainess Nkomeshya Mukamabo II, to engage Government in finding the best ways in which land can be alienated without causing displacements of vulnerable groups. She was speaking at the Mulungushi International Conference Centre in Lusaka today, 27^th August, 2015, when she officially opened the Participatory Ecological Land Use Management (PELUM) Association Regional Small Scale Farmers’ Symposium.

The acting Republican President, whose substantive position is Republican Vice President, was responding to Chieftainess Nkomeshya’s concerns on the rising incidents of land grabbing involving investors and small scale farmers. The official opening ceremony, was also attended by traditional leaders, Chief Sinazongwe of Sinanzongwe district and Chief Chibale of Serenje district, the Minister of Defence and acting Minister of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MACO), Richwell Siamunene, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources, Natural Resources and Environment (MLNREP) and a representative from the Clergy Bishop Joshua Banda of Northmead Assemblies.

Chieftainess Nkomeshya reminded traditional leaders that ‘it is our duty to fight for what belongs to our people’ describing these people as small scale farmers who use a hoe to till (prepare) their land. She observed that investors were displacing people from their homeland reiterating that ‘I have said no to displacement of my people’. She called on the Government to stop and halt this increasing trend of land grabbing involving investors. The acting President invited the Chieftainess and the entire House of Chiefs to collaborate in curbing land grabbing. She also urged the House of Chiefs to look into the issue of illegal selling of land by Chiefs to investors without informing their people (or subjects) to address rising incidents of displacements.

Local Maize variety

Cassava Cuttings

The symposium is being attended by several small scale farmers and members of PELUM Association from PELUM member countries in Eastern and Southern Africa. These are Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Lesotho, Botswana, Zambia and South Africa. The acting President, Mrs. Inonge Wina, in her official opening paid tribute to the Republican President, Edgar Chagwa Lungu, for receiving the regional pro-poor Governance Award. She said that the Zambian Government regcognised the important role that the agriculture sector played in the livelihoods of the people and would therefore remain committed to the implementation of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) compact. She also assured the small scale farmers that the Government is willing to listen to their voices in finding solutions to the challenges that were preventing the potential of agriculture to reduce poverty and contribute to economic emancipation for the majority of farm households to be realised. She highlighted the following challenges: limited access to finance; lack of infrastructure e.g. roads and; unreliable water supply. She visited the farmers’ exhibition stands before leaving the event. Exhibitors were from PELUM Association member countries. Various seeds and planting materials were displayed by the farmers (see picture inserts on the left).

It is D-Day for Zambia's Presidential Bye-Election

Introduction
The die is cast. It is less than twenty-four (24) hours before Zambia goes to the polls to elect its sixth Republican President. This is a bye-election. It comes as a result of a constitutional requirement for the nation to elect a Republican President within three months of a President dying in office. The incumbent President Michael Chilufya Sata died after serving for only over three years. The President Elect will only rule for slightly over a year as the nation is holding a General Election in 2016. Most political commentators have indicated that the candidate who will emerge winner in these election will most likely also win the 2016 General Election. This has made the bye-election  hotly contested. There are eleven (11) candidates, one from the ruling Patriotic Front (PF)and 10 from the opposition. The front runners are Edgar C Lungu of the PF and Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND)

Key campaign Promises
The PF and their candidate's campaign message is continuity. They are requesting the electorate to let the party complete its original five (5) years mandate. In order to consolidate this message the ruling party has recently reduced the price of fuel. This reduction came only a few days ago. The campaign has however been negatively affected by the delayed payment of money to farmers who sold maize to the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), that is financed from the National budget. Another contentious issue that threatened the party's campaign was the failure of the Government to enact a new Republican Constitution and provision of a 'road map' outlining the route to be followed in the enactment of the same. After intense pressure and the release of a 'road map' by the opposition UPND the Government succumbed and release its 'road map'.

The UPND and other parties especially the former ruling party, the Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) have promised free education. Other parties especially the Forum for Democracy  and Development (FDD) have highlighted the fact that it is a fallacy to promise free education instead promising to implement the decentralization policy that will allow ordinary citizens to actively engage in governance at the local level. Other promises include the commercialization and distribution of the 'Sondashi Formula', a herbal medicine whose franchise is owned  by Dr. Ludwig Sondashi, one of the candidates and leader of the Forum for Democratic Alternatives (FDA). The formula is believed cure HIV/AIDS, though this is contested as it is still undergoing some clinical trials. Peter Sikamba, President of the Green Party has promised to legalize the cultivation of 'marijuana' for medicinal and export purposes. There have also been some very outlandish promises such as the demolition of the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) and construction of an ultra modern hospital by the MDD candidate Paster Dr. Nevers Mumba.

Violence
This election has recorded some violence involving clashes mainly between the ruling PF and opposition UPND. The violence has been widely condemned by the Church and other stakeholders. However, it has continued with the PF and UPND accusing each other of being violent. Until now it has mostly involved brandishing of offensive weapons especially machetes and actual fighting between opposing groups.

Media coverage
Print and electronic media has covered all candidates in the news. There have also been a number of discussion forums including a Presidential debate that was televised live on Muvi TV. The PF candidate missed the live debate and was widely criticized for this. He preferred to be on the ground in North-Western Province campaigning. Some of the candidates that participated in the live debate where Nevers Mumba, Hakainde Hichilema, Edith Nawakwi and Peter Sikamba. Some of the media institutions have been accused of giving negative publicity to some of the candidates. The PF and UPND have been able to run a number of sponsored advertisements both on radio and on television. There have also been widespread use of the internet for campaigning on various platforms especially facebook. Traditional media especially music is also being used. It is now not unusual to see a vehicle driving on the road playing loud music of a certain political party with cadres showing their party symbols. T-shirts, posters, billboards. 'chitengis' have also been used.

Tribalism
Zambia has more than 72 ethnic groups that co-exist as one people. However, politics always somehow bring in the issue of tribalism and regionalism. The recent endorsements of PF candidate Edgar Lungu by the former Republican President Rupiah Banda and the UPND candidate Hakainde Hichilema by Vernon Mwaanga, a veteran and retired politician and the controversial Daniel Mukombwe, a veteran politician serving in the PF Government as Southern Province Provincial Minister have ignited tribal issues in these elections. The politicians who have made these endorsements have been accused of supporting the candidates coming from their ethnic groupings. However, both the PF and the UPND campaign teams have refuted these allegations saying that the politicians are free to endorse who they like. Daniel Mukombwe has however being accused of being tribal and some media reports said that he had been 'disowned' by the UPND because he uttered tribal remarks at a UPND rally in Choma. Most politicians are aware of the sensitivity of the subject and are avoiding directly engaging with the issue. The UPND campaign manager Dipak Patel has been reported in today's news to have issued a statement to the Zambia National Broadcasting Corporation (ZNBC) saying that all Zambians have a right to stand for President regardless of their ethnic group arguing that Tongas are nationalists despite notions that they are not. Hakainde Hichilema is Tonga from Southern Zambia while Edgar Lungu is from Eastern Zambia where there are several related ethnic groups e.g. Chewe, Ngoni, Kunda, Tumbuka etc.

Conclusion
This has been a hotly contested bye election. The main contenders Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema have campaigned in almost all parts of the country at various rallies. They have used the print and electronic media to speak to the voters. They have also appointed media campaign and publicity teams to distribute campaign messages to various audiences. With only a few hours remaining before the polls it is clear that the two main contenders will be competing neck to neck in the polls. This election will be decided mainly by those that do not vote based on regional loyalties or die hard party cadres.It will be decided on the calibre of the candidates and their capacity to deliver their promises and nostalgia about the death of a sitting President and the need for continuity. The PF has been in power for over three years and therefore they will win this election based on their performance and the belief that they have the capacity to deliver on the promises that are yet to be fulfilled. The UPND has a tougher mountain to climb based on performance. They will win this election based on the failures of the PF as perceived by the voters. They can win on the issue of the Republican Constitution and the rising cost of living. However, the recent fuel price reductions and the release of a 'road map'  as well as the re-recruitment of nurses that were fired for taking part in an illegal strike by the Government may work against them. The election will also be won by the recent prominent endorsements particularly among disgruntled MDD members who may opt to give their vote to their preferred candidate rather than their own. Of course there is a lot at stake for the losing candidate. Losing this election may also spell doom for any of the two front runners in 2016.

What's in Election Endorsements? Do they really result in votes?

Introduction

Zambians will be going to the polls to elect a new Republican President on 20th January 2015. There are 11 presidential candidates. Only one is female, Edith Nawakwi of the Forum for Democratic Process (FDD).

Edith Nawakwi, FDD President
 Photo: Courtesy of  

 https://www.facebook.com/edithz.nawakwi/photos/

The election has been necessitated by the death of the incumbent Republican President Michael Chilufya Sata who died on 28th October, 2014. He became Zambia's fifth President in 2011. According to the Zambian Constitution an election should be held three months after the death of a sitting President. The Republican Vice President, Guy Scott has been acting as President since the demise of President Sata.

This upcoming election has exposed the weaknesses in intra-party governance structures manifesting in party succession wrangles. It has also exposed weaknesses in the Zambian Constitution regarding the vacancy in the office of the President. The most intense of wrangles were in the ruling PF. There were two schools of thought on how a replacement should be found for the deceased party president. Before leaving for his trip to London, United Kingdom to seek medical attention the Republican President Michael Sata appointed Edgar Lungu as acting President. Mr Lungu was also the serving Minister of Defense and Minister of Justice. Following the untimely death of the incumbent President he handed over the instrument of power to the Republican Vice President Dr Guy Scott as provided for in the Zambian Constitution. This raised some dust among some PF supporters and some members of the general public who believed that Edgar Lungu should have continued to act until a substantive office holder was elected. A court injunction lodged by Newton Nguni followed to resolve the issue. 

Late Zambian Republican Michael Chilufya Sata,
  Photo:
Courtsey of /www.facebook.com/pages/Michael-Chilufya-Sata

Acting Republican President Dr Guy Scott
 Photo: courtsey of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guy_Scott

Edgar Chagwa Lungu, PF Party President,
 Photo: https://www.facebook.com/search/more/?q=Edgar+Lungu&init=public

Main Contenders

Rupiah Banda, Zambia's fourth Republican President
Photo: courtesy of  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupiah_Banda#mediaviewer 

The main contenders for the upcoming election are the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) President Edgar C Lungu and opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) President Hakainde Hichilema commonly known as HH. This will be the first time for Edgar Lungu to stand and the third for HH. HH has come out 3rd in all his previous attempts losing to Levy Mwanawasa in 2006, to Rupiah Banda 2008 in and Michael Chilufya Sata in 2011. Another strong contender was Rupiah Banda. He had to withdraw from the race following a court order. Rupiah has been in retirement since losing the Presidential election of 2011. However, shortly after the date for the forth coming presidential election was announced he decided to come back as the Movement for Multi-Party Democracy (MMD) with support of some of the big wigs in MMD. MMD was the ruling party before losing power to the PF in 2011. The party has been weakened by succession wrangles. Rupiah was replaced by Pastor Nevers Mumba in a convention held after Rupiah's decision to retire from active politics. Nevers Mumba has not been accepted as party president by some of the members of the party resulting in some of them supporting Rupiah's candidature before the court ruling.

Party succession wrangles

At PF party level there were also some different schools of thought on how to find a leader to contest the election. One school of thought was that a party convention be held while another was that the PF Central Committee elects a Party President. After protracted discussions and fall-outs the two schools of thoughts finally settled for a convention. Accreditation for the convention which was planned for the Mulungushi University in Kabwe was marred in irregularities with accusations from the two main differing schools of though. There were more than 5 candidates for the PF presidency. This included Edgar Lungu, Miles Sampa, Chishimba Kabwili, the former First Lady Dr. Christine Kaseba Sata, Musa Mwenya ,Robert Sichinga and Given Lubinda. The late President's son Mulenga Sata withdrew from the race shortly before the convention in Kabwe. The process of selecting the successor was affected by conflict and in the end there were 2 election processes. The first had Edgar Lungu unopposed and declared winner while the second elected Miles Sampa. Following protracted legal battles the second election was declared null and void and in the end Edgar Lungu successfully filed in the nomination as PF candidate.

The MMD also sought legal intervention to resolve the issue of who should stand on the party ticket. Dr Nevers Mumba and Rupiah Banda were locked in a legal battle with both claiming to be the MMD candidate. Some of the party official supported Rupiah's candidature arguing that he was a much stronger contender compared to Dr Mumba. Meanwhile Dr. Mumba sought legal interpretation of the MMD constitution over the issue and in the end the courts declared him the rightful candidate. Meanwhile the wrangles have continued with some members refusing to back Dr. Mumba in his campaign.

Endorsements

The era of political elections started with the reintroduction of multi-party elections in 1991 in Zambia. However, the issue of endorsements has been taken to a new level in these upcoming elections. Prior to this elections the endorsements were mainly sought from the traditional leaders. This is because these are supposedly in a position to influence the voting patterns of their subjects. There are a number of traditional leaders in Zambia but endorsements are mainly sought from influential Chiefs especially Paramount Chiefs. Presidential candidates have been reported in the media to have been visiting these traditional leaders whenever they have been on a campaign trail in rural areas. The rural vote is highly sought after because previous election outcomes have indicated that the voting patterns in these areas tend to be highly skewed certain favorites depending on the region. Most of the Presidential candidates with financial resources have therefore focused their campaign rallies in these regions.

Hakainde Hichilema, UNDP President. Photo:
 Courtsey of  https://www.facebook.com/hakainde.hichilema/photos

A new phenomenon in these elections is individual endorsements and inter-party endorsements. Some of the 'influential' Zambians including the fourth President Rupiah Banda have openly 'endorsed' certain candidates. We have also seen certain political parties or a groups of people in a particular political party endorsing a given Presidential candidate. HH and Edgar Lungu have received the most of these endorsements. The former first lady Dr Maureen Mwanawasa has endorsed HH and is part of his campaign team. HH has also received endorsements from Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba (GBM), the PF Member of Parliament (MP) for Kasama Constituency, Patrick Mucheleka, an independent MP, Felix Mutati, MMD MP and others. Edgar Lungu has received endorsements from Rupiah Banda and other MMD members including several MPs. He has also been endorsed by Frank Bwalya, President of Alliance for a Better Zambia. The endorsements have received prominent coverage in the  media.

The question is, do they really have any influence in the voting patterns? Recent Presidential elections in 2008 and 2011 have shown that Zambians in urban areas mainly vote based on the popularity of a given candidate and also based on the campaign promises. In 2008, the MMD main campaign message was continuity. Given the good work particularly in the fight against corruption embarked on by the 'New Deal' Government led by Levy Patrick Mwanawasa it was an easy election for the MMD to win. However, regarding the rural vote there were some elements of regional voting with the UPND, MMD and PF who were strong contenders retaining their regional strongholds. The 2011 PF campaign which removed the MMD Government was based on 'more money in your pocket'. The campaign strategy made some significant changes in the voting patterns across various age groups. For the first time most of the youth were interested in voting because the PF message appealed to them. Whilst the 3 main competitors retained their rural regional strongholds there were some significant shifts in the urban vote. The ruling MMD lost its stronghold in Western Province and there was a shift in voting patterns in the urban voting. One can easily argue that the MMD won a sympathetic vote in 2008 while the PF won the 2011 election based on the message. There is very little evidence of the endorsements being a key factor in shifting voting patterns. Previously these endorsements have mainly being by traditional leaders. The rise of individual endorsements may have some significant influence but this remains to be seen.

Other factors likely to influence the outcome

Financial resources will definitely be a key factor in the outcome of the forth coming elections. For the first time we have seen political parties using elaborate media strategies during the campaigns. The main contenders have dedicated websites and are using social media especially facebook to a very wide extent. There are elaborate media advertisements on radio and television and print media. In addition, there are street based campaigns involving dedicated campaign songs sung by popular artists. On the ground campaigns have involved hiring of chartered planes. This also means that the losses will be huge for the losing candidates given the resources that they have employed in these campaigns. 

Conclusion

The forth-coming presidential election on 20th January 2015 will definitely change Zambian's political history given the interesting new phenomenon that has emerged in political campaigning of 'individual' endorsements. These are endorsements that have been made by 'prominent' Zambians and some political parties in support of one presidential candidate or the other. For the first time we have seen members of the same political party support different presidential candidates. The classic example is the MMD where members of the party are either supporting the ruling PF candidate, or the UPND candidate or indeed the MMD candidate. There are also some political parties that have thrown their weight behind other political parties e.g. Frank Bwalya's Alliance for a Better Zambia. This is an interesting area of research. It would be interesting to see whether these endorsements will really have a significant impact on the voting patterns and the final outcome. Another new phenomenon is the use of social media in campaigning. Most of the candidates have dedicated facebook accounts for the campaign. Further, the ability to hire chartered planes and hold campaigns in remote areas is also expected to have a significant effect.

Savings Groups- What to do with growth?

20th November, 2013
Arusha

This afternoon I attended a discussion on Savings Groups (SG) as part of a training course that I am attending at Arusha's Snow Crest Hotel, Tanzania. The panelists included Kuria Wanjau of Financial Sector Deepening (FSD), Francis Songela of Care Tanzania W -Power Project, Simon Karoki of CRS Kenya and Courteney O'Connell of World Relief (WR).



Savings Group tool kit



There is no doubt that there is a SG revolution in Africa. SG are a group of self selecting individuals that come together for purposes of saving and lending to achieve their financial aspirations. Formation, training and mentoring of groups in an area is initially initiated by external agents such as International Non-governmental Organisations (INGOs), local NGO (could be faith based organisations or non faith based organisations) using various methodologies. Groups birthed out of these first generation groups either form spontaneously or are replicated by trained field agents, group members who have graduated from an SG and so on and so forth.

Savings Group at work in St. Theresa, Ibenga, Zambia

In today's discussion some of the key issues on the table were: the pressure for results and meeting targets by implementing agencies (IAs) versus the quality of the trainings and sustainability of the groups; is linking SGs to formal banks the way to go?; are SGs really reaching the poor as claimed by many IAs? what is the future of the savings movement? What are some of the concerns?

 

These are some of the views expressed by the discussants:

• SGs are becoming attractive to formal banking. This will help in expanding the outreach of formal banking institutions into rural areas. Formal Financial Services play a complimentary role to SGs especially for security reasons e.g. when the amount of money in the  'box' is huge especially towards 'share out'. Opening an account with a bank would guarantee the safety of the funds.
• The financial market should develop products that are attractive to the SG.  
• Linking SG to formal banking will give raise to issues of consumer protection. Information sharing with groups will be key in ensuring their interests are protected.
• The constantly changing operational environment is affecting quality of programme delivery.
• There is concern that government policy (or regulation) may dilute the original purpose of SGs e.g. by introduction of formal registration/taxation or promotion of conflicting approaches.
• Introducing service providers e.g. banks gives a wider choice to the SG and individual members.
• Lack of transparency e.g. trainers are in some cases taking advantage of groups and members leading to people losing money.
• Technology  will improve the efficiency of SGs e.g. mobile phone technology can reach those who do not want to below to groups but would like to save/or borrow.
• There are opportunities for linking SG to other initiatives e.g. clean energy.

There is no doubt that many practitioners and keen followers of the savings revolution are eager to see what will follow. The most important thing is that the SGs should define how they will evolve so that the are not 'swallowed' by banks or other formal institutions. They should continue to re-invest themselves and to service their interests and those of their members above anything else. Their destiny is in their hands.

 

Choices of a career woman: it's complicated!

Freedom of choice is when you can decide what you want, where you want to be and how you will get there in any aspects related to your life. Every worker has aspirations on where they see themselves in the near future and beyond. However, choices that some people have may be limited by a number of factors. This is more so if you are woman. In today's world many people believe that it does not matter whether you are a woman or man the sky is the limit. But is this really true for all women in all parts of the world? Granted the answer is no. There are several traditional values and norms that dictate what women can and are able to do. This is also true for girls in some cultures.

The story of Malala of Pakistan which hit headlines around the world tells it all. Girls may freely choice to go to school but their choice is limited in some cases by the society or culture in which they are born. For some girls the choice may be limited by the socio-economic classes in which they are born. In post-independence Africa may girl children did not go as far as high school because their parents thought it was wiser for them to pay for the boys in their households' education than for the girls. After all in their thinking the girl would marry and be taken care of by her husband in the future. These assertions have slowly changed even in the most traditional societies. Girls and boys are now given the same opportunity to go to school and attain higher education. Affirmative action by many institutions of higher learning have also contributed to attainment of higher education by girls in many developing countries.

Now back to the issue of women. In Zambia's modern society most of the traditional barriers to women's progression in life in urban set ups have been minimised. Women are free to marry who they want, have the number of children they want and own their own property. However, there are still some barriers when it comes to climbing up the corporate ladder. Despite being a signatory to the SADC Gender Protocol Zambia has not yet achieved a 30% representation of women in decision making in many sectors of society. The number of women in cabinet positions keeps on fluctuating between 2-6 at any given time since independence. The number of women Members of Parliament is also much lower in relation to men. There have been several campaigns (e.g. 50-50 campaign by the Zambia Women's Lobby Group) and projects to prepare women for election to ward councils and parliament but these have yielded little results. In the corporate world women have not fared any better. A few women have held senior positions in prominent companies and banks. Some of these include Mizinga Meru (Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Limited Managing Director), Ireen Muyenga (Zambia State Insurance Corporation Managing Director) to mention a few.

The question is why has this situation changed so little? What factors affect women's progression at individual, household, community, national and global levels? There are no simple answers. One of the key things to consider is the trade offs that have to be made with any choice. There are trade off between focusing on your career or your family and friends at a personal/individual level. This may also be a key factor at community level. To excel in any position, in the corporate, political, business or any other sector you need to be results oriented and dedicated to what you are doing. In many societies, women are regarded as the nucleus of the family. Therefore this means that whatever choices they make have to ensure that the family is not adversely affected. This means that women may have limited choices when they have a young family and more when their children are older. The limitations that comes with a young family may result in missed opportunities. This is more so in societies where there is stereotyping of gender roles.

Until recently, most cultures in Zambia reserved the role of child care for women. Children between 0-5 years would naturally be expected to be taken care of by their mothers or other women and girls in the family. However this trend is slowly changing especially in urban societies where women are increasingly working away from home. Even then most people who take up child care jobs are women. In my experience, I have only heard of one case where a young mother opted to employ a male nanny for her children. In this case the her children were male. Many mothers continue to trust female 'helpers' more when they need to leave their children in someone else's care.

Some women choose to take up part-time jobs or to work from home so that they are not deprived of the opportunity to participate fully in raising their children. Again, such a choice will affect one's ability to take on more demanding responsibilities in their career. From a family perspective choosing to engage fully in raising your kids by working from home or not having any formal job at all is an excellent thing to do. It requires a lot of self sacrifice to contribute to raising your children at the expense of your career progression. Working away from home may sometimes require working away from town and having to send days from your family. This is even more demanding in terms of the trade off involved. This can be quiet stressful for some women especially when they have young children or a baby to take care of. Some employers have flexible working conditions that allow women to travel with their infants especially when they are nursing.

 

Working women will continue to face some of these tough choices. What matters is where you are at in your career and what you think is important for you. One of the things that I always do when I am faced with tough choices is to have a serious reflection over whatever situation I am facing and look at what is best for me and the people that I care about. One thing is for sure. The first instinct is for one to base their choice on what is best for them. However, if we have to be honest we also need to reflect on how our decisions directly affect those we care about especially our family. This is where it really gets tricky and it is only when selfless interest are at play when rational people will put the interest of others before their own. It takes a lot of sacrifice to do this and more often than not most rational women will put their family first at the expense of their own climb up the career ladder. However, like anything else there are always some exceptions.